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What Happens if the Fed Cuts Rates Before Christmas Eve?

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Key takeaways

  • The Fed’s Dec. 9-10 meeting carries unusual weight as markets wait to see whether another rate cut will arrive before Christmas, shaping bonds, equities and crypto.

  • After two cuts in 2025, rates now sit at 3.75%-4.00%. Labor weakness and softer inflation support further easing, but officials remain divided because inflation risks have not fully cleared.

  • A cooling job market, easing inflation and the end of quantitative tightening could justify another reduction and align with year-end liquidity needs.

  • Sticky inflation, gaps in economic…

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